Afghanistan Dilemma

                        

We have already seen in the article https://secondriseofislam.blogspot.com/2016/05/pakistans-new-foreign-policy-challenges.html  that the USA’s first policy option was to install and strengthen a pro-USA regime in Afghanistan through which USA might secure its vital regional interests, like keeping away the regional Muslim countries away from the likely emerging economic, political, and defense regional block under China’s umbrella. The C-Pak Economic Corridor is actually a vanguard to establish such regional economic, political and defense block consisting China, Pakistan, Iran, central Asia, and possibly Russia and Western Asia later on. Having failed in its first policy option, the USA’s second policy option is to support such a so called Islamic regime in Afghanistan which might protect the USA’s regional interests, by keeping Afghanistan away from China’s circle of influence; that is why we see USA’s efforts to forge an alliance between Afghan Taliban and Afghan regime by including Taliban in the present Afghan regime.

We have also seen in the same article that the countries -e.g. Pakistan, China, Russia, Central Asian States, Western Asian States like KSA and the Gulf countries- whose interests are attached with C-Pak Project and who can gain economic, political and defense benefits out of this project cannot avail such benefits without adopting an active and aggressive policy in this regard. The states like USA, India and Iran – which are opposing this project- would not let this project run with full benefits, by creating an anarchic Afghanistan. The pro-Project states should come out with all out support for Afghan Taliban so that Taliban may overthrow Afghan regime OR a broad based Afghan regime free from   USA's influences, and fully netted with C-Pak may be established.

Out of above mentioned two options- i.e. overthrowing the present Afghan regime through military action by Taliban fully backed by pro-C-PEC countries, or establishment of a broad based Afghan regime free from USA’s influences- more feasible option is the second one i.e. establishment of a broad based Afghan regime free from USA’s influence.

Now the question is how it is possible to establish a broad based Afghan regime free from the USA’s influences.

We know the present Afghan regime is USA’s puppet regime which cannot pull on even a few months without USA’s military and financial support. This puppet regime would not be agreeable to establish a broad based regime free from USA’s influence, by including Taliban in it. The winning over of Hikmatyar group to the side of Afghan regime should not be viewed as prospects of an Afghan regime free from USA’s influences; rather it should be seen as a USA’s bid to force Taliban to accept a subordinate position in an Afghan regime which would remain under USA’s influence.

Therefore if pro-C-PEC countries want to establish a broad based Afghan regime free from USA’s influence, they have to bypass Mr. Ghani, the President of Afghan regime, and approach directly to the Afghan regime’s ethnic components separately. The Uzbek component of Afghan regime under Abdul Rasheed Dostum may be won over by the pro- C-PEC countries; similarly Pashtoon, Tajik, Hazara components of Afghan regime may be approached separately and won over by winning over the respective tribal and ethnic leadership of these components. For the purpose, Afghan Taliban would have to sacrifice their fair share in the would-be broad based Afghan regime so that ethnic components of present Afghan regime may be accommodated to the maximum. Iran’s latest overtures to Pakistan show they are ready to end their opposition to C-PEC and want to become a part of C-PEC. If it is so, Pakistan may use Iran’s influence as well to approach such Afghan groups which are under Iran’s influence to make them a part of broad based Afghan regime. When many components of present Afghan regime would be won over by pro- C-PEC Alliance, the present Afghan regime’s forces would not remain intact and start disintegrating to join their respective parent tribal and ethnic groups whose leadership already would have been won over by the pro-C-PEC Alliance. In this way, President Ghani may be forced out of power comparatively smoothly and a broad based Afghan regime free from USA’s influence may be established at Kabul.