Presently, mainstay of Pakistan’s foreign policy is
completion of C-Pak Economic Corridor and thereafter successful running its
operations to reap its economic benefits to the fullest. As we have already
seen through many related articles on this blog, C-Pak Corridor is not only an
economic enterprise, it is going to change regional political and defense
scenario. Consequently Pakistan’s foreign policy related challenges are also
related to regional political, economic and defense strategies adopted by
various regional and international players.
The most important player is the USA. The USA’s first
policy option was to install and strengthen a secular pro-USA regime-
like the present Afghanistan’s regime- in Afghanistan through which USA might
secure its vital regional interests, like keeping away the regional Muslim
countries away from the likely emerging economic, political, and defense
regional block under China’s umbrella. The C-Pak Economic Corridor is actually
a vanguard to establish such regional political and defense block consisting
China, Pakistan, Iran, central Asia, and possibly Russia and Western Asia later
on. Having failed in its first policy option, the USA’s second policy option is
to support such a so called Islamic regime in Afghanistan which might
protect the USA’s regional interests, by keeping Afghanistan away from China’s
circle of influence; that is why we see USA’s efforts to forge an alliance
between Afghan Taliban and Afghan regime by including Taliban in the present
Afghan regime set up. But Taliban, coming closer to China and involving China
in Afghan talks, foiled USA’s second policy option to keep Afghanistan away
from China. Resultantly the USA disrupted peace dialogue between Afghan Taliban
and Afghan regime, first time, by disclosing the news of death of Mulla Omar,
and, second time, by killing Mulla Akhtar Mansoor in a Drone attack. Presently,
USA’s policy is to let Afghanistan plunge in turmoil because anarchic
Afghanistan which is located in the heart of likely regional economic,
political and defense block, would be a real hurdle in the way of establishment
of such a block. (for details plz see http://secondriseofislam.blogspot.com/2015/08/the-usas-second-policy-option-in_4.html).
Iran is another important regional player which may
impact scope of likely regional block, by including or not including in the
prospective regional block. Iran, being isolated among the Muslim world due to
its sectarian policies, is desperately looking for economic and political
friends to strengthen its security. Iran has important stakes in Afghanistan and
cannot afford a hostile regime in Afghanistan under Taliban. After economic
sanctions are lifted, Iran was left, and still left, with two options; Iran
might become a part of C-Pak Economic Corridor, OR, Iran may join USA block to
oppose this Economic Corridor Project. Iran knows that prospective regional
block cannot be fully integrated without stability in Afghanistan. There are
two ways to get stability in Afghanistan; either Taliban and present Afghan
regime get together in alliance to form a broad based government in Afghanistan
OR, any one of the two groups is powerful enough to topple down the other group
from the position of power. Iran, instead of joining C-Pak Project and working
for broad based Afghan government fully netted with C-Pak, has unfortunately
opted for strengthening present Afghan
regime at the cost of Taliban and C-Pak. As the present Afghan regime, despite
Iran’s and USA’s support, cannot be powerful enough to crush Taliban, Iran’s
present policy in Afghanistan can yield no better results than that of USA’s-
i.e. continued civil war in Afghanistan.
Iran is also collaborating with India to strengthen
present Afghan regime, and constructing Chah-bahar Port as a competitor of
Gawadar Port i.e. a project to vanguard project of C-Pak Economic Corridor. India
is openly opposing C-Pak and Iran is in open collaboration with India for the
purpose. India’s opposition to C-Pak is understandable; India is hostile state
to Pakistan and cannot tolerate a Pakistan occupying a central position at
regional political stage due to successful C-Pak project. But Iran’s opposition
to C-Pak cannot be called a wise decision;
because Iran may also be beneficiary of C-Pak through Gawadar Port. Iran may
develop Chah Bahar Port but, for that purpose, it is not necessary to give Chah
Bahar a color of competitor of Gawadar. Iran-Indian Defense Pact 2003- which
allows India to use Iran’s military and naval bases in case of war even against
Pakistan- clearly shows Iran’s great sense of insecurity and sheer false
arrogance which has made Iran a hostage of sectarian policies since Iran’s
revolution.
In short, Iran’s present policy towards Afghanistan
and Pakistan, being tinged with sectarianism and sheer arrogance, is not a good
omen for Pakistan’s C-Pak Project and needs a befitting reply from Pakistan. Iran's economic prospects are not so promising as to put Iran at the central stage of regional politics. Out of $26.2 b Chinese projects in Iranian oil fields, $22.2 b projects have been cancelled or suspended. Iran’s
present economy is $400 b plus (2014) and can grow at the rate of 5-7% in the
coming ten years; even if it grows at 8% in the next decade, it would be
standing at 870 b plus after ten years (in 2025). . As for military capability of
Iran, it has been reduced to scratches and Iran is depending on Indian help to renovate it. As against these bare facts, Iran’s
false arrogance needs to be cut to match its real stature, if they become a threat to
Pakistan’s security.
Russia is also becoming an important regional player
which may impact C-Pak Project. Russia being aware of benefits likely to be
accrued from C-Pak may also contribute to make this project a success. Russia
may realize its centuries long dream of having access to warm waters by
becoming a partner of C-Pak Project.
Similarly Western Asian Muslim countries, particularly
Saudi Arabia, and Central Asian Muslim Nations may achieve a lot in terms of economic, political and defense benefits, by becoming a part of C-Pak Project.
From the foregoing, it becomes clear that the
countries whose interests are attached with C-Pak Project or those who can gain
economic, political and defense benefits out of this project cannot avail such
benefits without adopting an active and aggressive policy in this regard. The
states like USA, India and Iran – which are opposing this project- would not
let this project run with full benefits, by creating an anarchic Afghanistan.
The pro-Project states should come out with all out support for Afghan Taliban so that
Taliban may overthrow Afghan regime OR a broad based Afghan regime free from USA's influences, and
fully netted with C-Pak may be established.
No comments:
Post a Comment