We have already seen in the article https://secondriseofislam.blogspot.com/2016/05/pakistans-new-foreign-policy-challenges.html that the USA’s first policy option was
to install and strengthen a pro-USA regime in Afghanistan through which USA
might secure its vital regional interests, like keeping away the regional
Muslim countries away from the likely emerging economic, political, and defense
regional block under China’s umbrella. The C-Pak Economic Corridor is actually
a vanguard to establish such regional economic, political and defense block
consisting China, Pakistan, Iran, central Asia, and possibly Russia and Western
Asia later on. Having failed in its first policy option, the USA’s second
policy option is to support such a so called Islamic regime in
Afghanistan which might protect the USA’s regional interests, by keeping
Afghanistan away from China’s circle of influence; that is why we see USA’s
efforts to forge an alliance between Afghan Taliban and Afghan regime by
including Taliban in the present Afghan regime.
We have also seen in the same article that the
countries -e.g. Pakistan, China, Russia, Central Asian States, Western Asian
States like KSA and the Gulf countries- whose interests are attached with C-Pak
Project and who can gain economic, political and defense benefits out of this
project cannot avail such benefits without adopting an active and aggressive
policy in this regard. The states like USA, India and Iran – which are opposing
this project- would not let this project run with full benefits, by creating an
anarchic Afghanistan. The pro-Project states should come out with all out support
for Afghan Taliban so that Taliban may overthrow Afghan regime OR a broad based
Afghan regime free from USA's influences, and fully netted with
C-Pak may be established.
Out of above mentioned two
options- i.e. overthrowing the present Afghan regime through military action by
Taliban fully backed by pro-C-PEC countries, or establishment of a broad based
Afghan regime free from USA’s influences- more feasible option is the second
one i.e. establishment of a broad based Afghan regime free from USA’s influence.
Now the question is how it is
possible to establish a broad based Afghan regime free from the USA’s
influences.
We know the present Afghan regime
is USA’s puppet regime which cannot pull on even a few months without USA’s
military and financial support. This puppet regime would not be agreeable to
establish a broad based regime free from USA’s influence, by including Taliban
in it. The winning over of Hikmatyar group to the side of Afghan regime should
not be viewed as prospects of an Afghan regime free from USA’s influences;
rather it should be seen as a USA’s bid to force Taliban to accept a
subordinate position in an Afghan regime which would remain under USA’s
influence.
Therefore if pro-C-PEC countries
want to establish a broad based Afghan regime free from USA’s influence, they
have to bypass Mr. Ghani, the President of Afghan regime, and approach directly
to the Afghan regime’s ethnic components separately. The Uzbek component of Afghan
regime under Abdul Rasheed Dostum may be won over by the pro- C-PEC countries;
similarly Pashtoon, Tajik, Hazara components of Afghan regime may be approached
separately and won over by winning over the respective tribal and ethnic leadership
of these components. For the purpose, Afghan Taliban would have to sacrifice
their fair share in the would-be broad based Afghan regime so that ethnic components
of present Afghan regime may be accommodated to the maximum. Iran’s latest
overtures to Pakistan show they are ready to end their opposition to C-PEC and
want to become a part of C-PEC. If it is so, Pakistan may use Iran’s influence
as well to approach such Afghan groups which are under Iran’s influence to make
them a part of broad based Afghan regime. When many components of present Afghan
regime would be won over by pro- C-PEC Alliance, the present Afghan regime’s forces
would not remain intact and start disintegrating to join their respective parent
tribal and ethnic groups whose leadership already would have been won over by
the pro-C-PEC Alliance. In this way, President Ghani may be forced out of power
comparatively smoothly and a broad based Afghan regime free from USA’s
influence may be established at Kabul.
