Saturday, 23 November 2013

USA's Foreign Policy and Pakistan

Hangu Drone attack is a clever move by USA. Through this attack, USA wants to convince Afghan Taliban that Pakistan is on USA's side against Afghan Taliban. It is a dangerous move which Pakistan can foil only by taking real steps against USA's intervention; otherwise seeds of mistrust sown in Afghan Taliban's minds would be a real, clear and near danger for Pakistan's security.
I have stated in my article ‘Imperatives of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy’ that Pakistan’s internal conditions are greatly influenced by conditions prevailing in Afghanistan. The USA’s war in Afghanistan is nearing its end, and Taliban are strong enough to assert their will in certain portions of Afghanistan. With or without presence of USA and its allies in Afghanistan, Taliban are not likely to accept a secular government in Afghanistan; they will keep on struggling for establishment of an Islamic State like one which was overthrown by USA and its allies previously. It is the destination of Afghanistan, which cannot be neglected either by USA or by Pakistan.

The major consideration of USA is to prevent the probability of China emerging as economic and political super power and Central Asian Muslim countries including Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan all joining Chinese block. In the backdrop of this consideration, the USA may have two opposite choices/policy options regarding Afghan situation. The first choice of USA may be to oppose establishment of Islamic state in Afghanistan. The pre-condition of such a choice would be installation of a USA friendly government in Afghanistan so that USA’s regional interests may be protected. Such an option would be made viable and achievable through winning over both Pakistan and India to favor this policy option so that threat of emergence of China and Islamic block may be addressed. For this purpose, Pak-India disputes would be resolved to keep, on the one hand, Pakistan away from China and Chinese dependence and, on the other hand, to encourage and enable Pakistan to fight Pakistani Taliban which are aligned with Afghan Taliban to establish Islamic state in Afghanistan. 
In case of failure of first choice, the second choice of USA may be to support Islamic state in Afghanistan, provided such an Islamic state is anti-China and anti-Iran. The basic objective behind such a policy option would be the same i.e. to undo the threat of emergence of Chinese-Muslim block.
The Drone attack in Hangu should be seen in the backdrop of scenario elaborated above. The USA is clearly working on the first policy option  presently. This attack clearly seems to have been designed to develop mistrust in Afghan Taliban’s minds that Pakistan is on USA’s side in the war between USA and Afghan Taliban.

In the same article i.e. ‘Imperatives of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy’  it also has been stated that if Pakistan adopts USA’s either of two policy options afore-mentioned, it would enhance threat to Pakistan’s national security because such a foreign policy option adopted by Pakistan would not be in line with Pakistan’s internal imperatives. If going along USA’s first policy option, Pakistan opposes establishment of an Islamic state in Afghanistan, that would mean Pakistan’s war against Pakistani Taliban would never come to end because Pakistani Taliban are aligned with Afghan Taliban which are struggling for an Islamic state in Afghanistan. Such an exigency would seriously threaten Pakistan’s security which is already undermined by Pak-TTP war; Pakistan’s economy would continue to be paralysed. Such a regional situation would never let Pakistan join likely Islamic-China block; Pakistan would be kept away from benefitting the enormous economic and strategic advantages likely to be accrued from this regional block/Cooperation.  It was concluded that present geo-strategic and internal conditions of Pakistan demand it to forge an Economic and Political Cooperation with China, Central Asia, Iran and Afghanistan. Pakistan should primarily employ all its economic resources to make this Cooperation a viable and vigorous framework leading Pakistan to a prime position in this Alliance. All this is not possible without defying USA’s regional policy which aims at diluting the chances of establishment of anti-USA block consisting China and regional Islamic countries.

USA is now staging final phases of its first policy option to materialize its objectives in this region. The Hangu attack is a shrewd move by USA to sow seeds of mistrust in Afghan Taliban’s minds against Pakistan so that by drawing Afghan Taliban away from Pakistan’s support, pro-USA puppet secular government may be installed and strengthened at Kabul, after USA’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. Pakistan should foil this clever USA’s move by taking real steps so that mistrust may not be stayed in Afghan Taliban’s minds; Pakistan should stop NATO supplies at least till time USA makes an apology and commits to abstain in future from such attacks on Pakistan’s soil. If Pakistan fails in appreciating the implications of USA's moves in this region, Pakistan would be a loser greater than any other country in this region.

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