Hangu Drone attack is a clever move by USA. Through
this attack, USA wants to convince Afghan Taliban that Pakistan is on USA's
side against Afghan Taliban. It is a dangerous move which Pakistan can foil
only by taking real steps against USA's intervention; otherwise seeds of
mistrust sown in Afghan Taliban's minds would be a real, clear and near danger
for Pakistan's security.
I have stated in my article ‘Imperatives of Pakistan’s
Foreign Policy’ that Pakistan’s internal conditions are greatly
influenced by conditions prevailing in Afghanistan. The USA’s war in
Afghanistan is nearing its end, and Taliban are strong enough to assert their
will in certain portions of Afghanistan. With or without presence of USA and
its allies in Afghanistan, Taliban are not likely to accept a secular government
in Afghanistan; they will keep on struggling for establishment of an Islamic
State like one which was overthrown by USA and its allies previously. It is the
destination of Afghanistan, which cannot be neglected either by USA or by
Pakistan.
The major consideration of USA is to prevent the probability
of China emerging as economic and political super power and Central Asian
Muslim countries including Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan all joining Chinese
block. In the backdrop of this consideration, the USA may have two opposite
choices/policy options regarding Afghan situation. The first choice of USA may
be to oppose establishment of Islamic state in Afghanistan. The pre-condition
of such a choice would be installation of a USA friendly government in
Afghanistan so that USA’s regional interests may be protected. Such an option
would be made viable and achievable through winning over both Pakistan and
India to favor this policy option so that threat of emergence of China and
Islamic block may be addressed. For this purpose, Pak-India disputes would be
resolved to keep, on the one hand, Pakistan away from China and Chinese
dependence and, on the other hand, to encourage and enable Pakistan to fight
Pakistani Taliban which are aligned with Afghan Taliban to establish Islamic
state in Afghanistan.
In case of failure of first choice, the second choice
of USA may be to support Islamic state in Afghanistan, provided such an Islamic
state is anti-China and anti-Iran. The basic objective behind such a policy
option would be the same i.e. to undo the threat of emergence of Chinese-Muslim
block.
The Drone attack in Hangu
should be seen in the backdrop of scenario elaborated above. The USA is clearly
working on the first policy option
presently. This attack clearly seems to have
been designed to develop mistrust in Afghan Taliban’s minds that Pakistan is on
USA’s side in the war between USA and Afghan Taliban.
In the same article i.e. ‘Imperatives
of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy’ it also has been stated that if Pakistan adopts USA’s either
of two policy options afore-mentioned, it would enhance threat to Pakistan’s
national security because such a foreign policy option adopted by Pakistan
would not be in line with Pakistan’s internal imperatives. If going along USA’s
first policy option, Pakistan
opposes establishment of an Islamic state in Afghanistan, that would mean
Pakistan’s war against Pakistani Taliban would never come to end because
Pakistani Taliban are aligned with Afghan Taliban which are struggling for an
Islamic state in Afghanistan. Such an exigency would seriously threaten
Pakistan’s security which is already undermined by Pak-TTP war; Pakistan’s economy
would continue to be paralysed. Such a regional situation would never let
Pakistan join likely Islamic-China block; Pakistan would be kept away from
benefitting the enormous economic and strategic advantages likely to be accrued
from this regional block/Cooperation. It was concluded that present
geo-strategic and internal conditions of Pakistan demand it to forge an
Economic and Political Cooperation with China, Central Asia, Iran and
Afghanistan. Pakistan should primarily employ all its economic resources to
make this Cooperation a viable and vigorous framework leading Pakistan to a
prime position in this Alliance. All this is not possible without defying USA’s
regional policy which aims at diluting the chances of establishment of anti-USA
block consisting China and regional Islamic countries.
USA is now staging final phases of its first policy option to
materialize its objectives in this region. The Hangu attack is a shrewd move by
USA to sow seeds of mistrust in Afghan Taliban’s minds against Pakistan so that
by drawing Afghan Taliban away from Pakistan’s support, pro-USA puppet secular government
may be installed and strengthened at Kabul, after USA’s withdrawal from
Afghanistan. Pakistan should foil this clever USA’s move by taking real steps
so that mistrust may not be stayed in Afghan Taliban’s minds; Pakistan should
stop NATO supplies at least till time USA makes an apology and commits to
abstain in future from such attacks on Pakistan’s soil. If Pakistan fails in appreciating the implications of USA's moves in this region, Pakistan would be a loser greater than any other country in this region.
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