C-Pak and USA’s Afghan Policy (1)

One of the main objectives of USA’s occupation of Afghanistan was to contain Chinese economic and political expansion in the region. In year 2002, prospects of Chinese rise were bright but Chinese rise was not a reality yet. That is why USA’s efforts to contain China and to occupy Afghanistan for the purpose were understandable. But now in year 2017, Chinese economic and political rise is a reality; the USA’s occupation of Afghanistan is no longer a justifiable foreign policy option for containment of China.

In year 2017, China has surpassed US in terms of PPP based GDP which has reached to $23 trillion (approx) as compared to US’s $19 tn (approx). Already in year 2015, China’s total GNP (PPP) stood at $ 17.92 tn as compared to US’s $17.81 tn; China’s total reserves stood at $ 3.9 trillion as compared to US’s $ 434 billion; China’s growth rate at 7.4% as against US’s 2.4%; China’s FDI (inflows) at $ 347.85 b as compared to US’s $ 287.16 b; China’s exports at $ 2.34 trillion against US’s $ 2.34 trillion; China’s government revenue at $ 2.11 tn as compared to US’s $ 2.7 tn; China’s per capita income at more than 7000 $ as compared to US’s 54000$; China’s high technology exports at $ 560 b as compared to US’s $147 b; China’s energy consumption at 3034 Mtoe as compared to US’s 2224 Mtoe; China’s undergraduate enrollment at 24.68 m as against US’s 17.65 m; China’s hospital beds per 1000 were 3.8 and US’s were 2.9; China’s physicians per 1000 were 1.8 and US’s were 2.5.

From the figures given above, we can see China has overall surpassed US in economic strength. Though in terms of per capita income and total government’s revenues, USA is still ahead of China but keeping in view the fact that China’s growth rate is three times of that of US’s, the difference between government’s total revenues would be ended soon and gap between per capita income would also keep on reducing in coming years. With far ahead GDP (PPP) and fairly ahead GNP (PPP) and  nine times more reserves, China has beaten US in terms of state’s economic strength. Keeping in view China’s three times greater growth rate, this gap between economic strength of China and US would go on increasing with every coming year.  

Similarly China has enhanced its political influence in the region and this fact may be proved on the basis of China’s increasing political involvement in regional issues e.g. Afghanistan. China’s resolve to assert its sovereignty on disputed East China Sea, and China’s vigorous foreign policy through SCO, and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has caused expansion of China’s political influence in the region and beyond. Chinese strong economic and political presence in Africa is also a parameter of China’s ever increasing political influence.

 From the foregoing we may see that China has already expanded its economic and political strength in the region and beyond, and even has surpassed US in many areas of economic field. If US’s main objective behind Afghanistan invasion was to contain China economically and politically, that objective has already been foiled by China.

Now US’s presence in Afghanistan cannot be justified to the extent of US’s objective of containment of China. However relevance of US’s presence in Afghanistan still exists to forestall the possibility of C-Pak to be converted into basis of likely Islamic block in the region. A nuclear Muslim state like Pakistan which would be closely netted with Iran, Turkey, Afghanistan, CASs and Western Asian Gulf states through C-Pak may play a role to establish an Islamic block in the region. In order to forestall this possibility, US is trying to remove the centrality of Pakistan from C-Pak without damaging China’s economic interests- because US knows they cannot succeed in this plan without China’s support. That is why we see US- China making efforts together to solve Afghan issue. The US- China’s concerted efforts to solve Afghan issue may result in establishing such a regime in Afghanistan which may not allow CAS’s dependence on Pakistan and which may force Pakistan to open land routes between India and CASs so that CAS's likely dependence on Pakistan due to C-Pak may be reduced, and as a result Pakistan’s centrality in C-Pak may be removed. There is every likelihood that China would support opening of trade routes between CAS and India because China is enjoying trade surplus of more than $50 b with India and as such China would not oppose more trade openings to India.

From the foregoing one must not infer that Pakistan should start looking to China with distrust. Every country has its own interests; Pakistan’s role should be to reap as much benefits from C-Pak as possible and to poise itself to harvest even those benefits which are not intended to be given to Pakistan. An Economic and Political Islamic block in the region may not be intended result of C-Pak in view of China; but Pakistan and other regional Muslim countries are not bound to go by what is intended by China or US. Pakistan should see US’s brokered peace initiative in Afghanistan in the light of US’s intention to remove Pakistan’s centrality from C-Pak. It is with this perspective that we can understand US’s insistence to get Pakistan fight against the Afghan Taliban; US do not want to see an Afghan regime, even after induction of Taliban, which should favor Pakistan against India. Pakistan should show resilience for induction of its friends in Afghan regime to foil US’s nefarious designs. It is not only peaceful Afghanistan but also a friendly Afghanistan which is in Pakistan’s favor.

The US’s recent hostile statements about C-Pak are no more than a bargaining tool to get Pakistan and China concede to US’s demands in respect of C-Pak. The US, being aware of its declining economic position, may not be ignorant of C-Pak’s importance to accrue economic benefits for the US. Whatever is the result of US’s current policy towards C-Pak –whether US fails or succeeds- there is every likelihood that US would become a part of C-Pak in future (continued).