C-Pak and USA’s Afghan Policy (2)

India has become very important tool in USA’s foreign policy. As has been stated in part (1) of this article, containment of China is no longer an objective of US’s Afghan policy. The USA knows they cannot contain China’s economic expansion and China’s political expansion which goes along-with economic expansion. The nuclear age does not allow US to contain China militarily as well.  However US can use its military power to have its share in the world’s economic development due to Chinese economic expansion. This consideration provides rationale of importance of India in US’s foreign policy in the region; US sees India’s military power, particularly naval power, as desirable addition to the US’s military capability. In return US is ready to accept India’s enhanced influence in the region, particularly in Afghanistan and South Asia. In this perspective, Pakistan should not expect any concession from India regarding Kashmir Dispute. On the contrary, it is combined strategy of US and India to destabilize Pakistan through Afghanistan; this destabilization policy aims at weakening of Pakistan’s role and central position in C-Pak project; it is where convergence of US’s and India’s interests occurs. However it may be appreciated US has accepted the reality of China’s economic rise and as such US would not hamper China’s way to economic progress, though US, like India, would like to curtail Pakistan’s central position in C-Pak project.

In other words, US’s expressed opposition to C-Pak is not US’s basic regional foreign policy consideration, though such opposition may be taken as a tool to achieve some foreign policy objectives; one such objective, as already discussed, is to curtail Pakistan’s centrality in the C-Pak project. Another such objective is to bring Pakistan into terms to settle Kashmir Dispute in India’s favor so that India should remain on US’s side in this international scenario in which India may change the side to become a part of C-Pak and abandon its role of China’s strategic competitor in the region.  It may be noted China also may not oppose US, if any move is initiated by US to settle Kashmir Dispute in India’s favor, because China’s interests, as a blossoming economy, are to have a conflict free neighboring area which is more conducive for propagation of Chinese trade and commercial interests. Pakistan would have to show greater resilience in opposing any such settlement of Kashmir Dispute, which goes against Kashmiri people’s interests.

Another objective behind US’s hostile statement regarding C-Pak may be to bring Pakistan into terms to acquiesce into US’s position and interests in Afghanistan so that US’s friendly coalition regime in Afghanistan may be established, and Pakistan’s friendly Afghan regime may be avoided. As stated earlier, if Pakistan concedes to US’s demands regarding Afghanistan, it would damage Pakistan’s central position of C-Pak and lead to enhancement of India’s political and commercial interests in the region. India is US’s strategic partner and as such India’s enhanced commercial and political influence in the region would be seen as duly sharing of C-Pak benefits between US, India, China and Pakistan; but, as mentioned earlier, this sharing would be at the cost of Pakistan’s commercial interests as well as Pakistan's and other regional Muslim countries’ long term interests regarding establishment of an Islamic block in the region. 

After accepting the fact that China has beaten US in terms of state’s economic strength and after changing its policy of containment of China through Afghanistan occupation, US has cautiously devised regarding Afghanistan such foreign policy objectives which do not run counter to interests of China and Russia. We may appreciate above discussed US’s objectives behind anti-C-Pak statements  do not run counter to interests of China and Russia; that is why China and Russia, so far, have not supported Taliban to the extent where Taliban may be enabled to flush out US’s forces from  Afghanistan, as Taliban had flushed out Russian forces from Afghanistan in the near past. A balanced Afghan regime, having no tilt to Pakistan, is in favor of China, Russia, USA and India because such Afghan regime may be used to propagate, on the one hand, trade and commercial interests between China, Russia and India by forcing Pakistan to open land routes between CAS and India, and, on the other hand, commercial interests of US in Afghanistan.

From the foregoing, we may conclude that Pakistan has to show its utmost strong resolve to protect its strategic and economic interests. The main driver of anti-Pakistan diplomacy is the US; the discussed anti-Pakistan objectives are basically US’s interests. It is US which is taking China and Russia along to implement its policy objectives; China and Russia cannot force Pakistan to acquiesce into US’s interests in Afghanistan. C-Pak project’s importance for China cannot be overemphasized; Russia also can avail the benefits of C-Pak. In this way, C-Pak limits China’s and Russia’s capability to force Pakistan to compromise its strategic and commercial interests. Pakistan does not have to be short-sighted to concede to US’s demand regarding Afghanistan and India (concluded).