In the present global
economy, a state’s economy particularly export oriented economy flourishes
through better competitiveness in terms of, among others factors, availability
of cheap energy and economical access to the markets. Pakistan, due to its
geographical location, can provide India with better competitiveness in terms
of these two factors i.e. availability of cheap energy from the Central Asia
and economical access to the markets of Central Asia and beyond. With the signing of recent Taipei Gas Project-
regarding supply of natural gas from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan and
to India through Pakistan- Pakistan has offered India availability of cheap
energy. But, in return, Pakistan has got nothing from India except an overture
from India for better relations with Pakistan. Keeping in view past history of
Pak-India relations, India may back out from its commitments easily- particularly
regarding Kashmir- but it would not be easy for Pakistan to block supply of gas
to India in the presence of a legal agreement in this regard. It seems as if Pakistan
is being deprived of benefits of its geographical location.
Presently India’s
economy is growing with good pace, but India may not continue with this growth
pace, particularly in its exports, without economical access to new markets and
availability of new resources of cheap energy. It may be appreciated that
strategic importance of a country depends more on growing export economy than
on growing internal economy because it is export economy which enables a state
to amass foreign reserves which can be utilized to gain strategic influence in
import-export partners as well as in other states. It may also be appreciated
that natural gas is considered among the cheapest source of energy. India is
most desperate country to have access to such cheap sources of energy in its
quest for competitive export advantages in the face of growing competition from
other competitors, particular from China. It is also a known fact that India is
pressurizing Pakistan to grant trade transit route to India through Pakistan to
Afghanistan and beyond. Such a trade transit route offered to India through
Pakistan, coupled with Taipei Project would add to strategic strength of India in
the region at the cost of Pakistan.
We have already seen
in the article http://secondriseofislam.blogspot.com/2015/08/pak-china-economic-corridor-way-to.html
that China is competing India in seven out of ten top Indian exports. If China
is given an extra competitive edge in terms of distance from the import
countries, and availability of cheap inputs, China can oust India from the
export markets of those seven Indian exports. We also have seen that C-PEC can
provide China with the required extra competitive edge against India, if China
opts to set up, in Pakistan, industries regarding those seven exportable
products, and exports those products through the Gawadar Port. The C-PEC has provided
Pakistan with opportunities to reduce Indian strategic influence in the region
and the world at large in near future. It should be strategy of Pakistan to
develop C-PEC, with a view to reduce strategic importance of India in the
region and the world at large. Given the geographical location of India, it may
be appreciated that it would be preferable for India to enhance its commercial and
military interests into the region of South Asia, Central Asia and the Gulf;
the same are the areas which are center of economic and military interests of
Pakistan. India is a natural rival of Pakistan’s strategic interests in the
region. A militarily and economically stronger India would claim for space of strategic
influence in the region at the cost of Pakistan. Taipei Project, coupled with trade
transit route to India through Pakistan to Afghanistan and beyond would add to
economic and strategic strength of India in the region, and as such these
projects are not in line with strategic interests of Pakistan.
Two enemy states may benefit each other
economically; but no state gives such economic benefits to its enemy, which may
be turned into strategic advantage by
the enemy state. Strategic interests of a nation are those long term interests which are in
line with national sentiments and aspirations of a nation; Ruling nations always tend
to achieve glory, obviously at the cost of their competitors/rivals. Pakistan
and India are no exception; they would also tend to achieve glory at each other’s
cost. No amount of economic interests and no degree of commonality of economic
interests is supposed to force Pakistan and India to abandon their sentiments
and aspirations of glory, and both would try to achieve that glory at each
other’s cost because they happen to be each other’s rival; this is what is their
natural strategic interest. Because Pakistan
and India share the region where they aspire to achieve glory, they are natural
rival (China and Pakistan are not rival because they do not share areas where
they aspire glory). The commonality of economic interests (though it does not
exist; even if it exists) is not supposed to make Pakistan forego their
strategic interests. The Taipei Project,
and grant of trade transit route to India through Pakistan to Afghanistan and
beyond- even if these projects are based on commonality of economic interests of
Pakistan and India- would be contradictory to strategic
interests of Pakistan.
The best option for
Pakistan is to seek from India an offset of what strategic advantage India has
got out of Taipei Project; such an offset may be got by getting India to
declare that Jammu and Kashmir State is a disputed territory whose fate is yet to be decided. If India is not ready to settle Kashmir Dispute, Pakistan should not think in terms of giving any strategic advantage
to India and should amend this project to exclude India from it before it
starts.
Various proposed settlements
put forth through backdoor channel, regarding Kashmir Dispute, fall short of a
Kashmir annexing either to Pakistan or India; such proposed settlements do not
envisage any change in existing boundaries of India and Pakistan. Falling short
of changing the existing boundaries of both states, any solution of Kashmir
Dispute would not worth of giving India any strategic advantage as a compensation.
Pakistan may better wait for ten years so that fruits of C-PEC may accrue to
Pakistan. The C-PEC may become a vibrant tool to reduce India’s exports, as
mentioned above. Once India’s exports do not remain competitive in
international markets, the trend of foreign direct investment to India would
also be plunged which would further damage India’s economy. Coupled with
economic downslide, strategic importance of India would also be tarnished in
the region irreparably. All these factors combined may force India to come to
terms with Pakistan on Kashmir Dispute, and India, in a bid to restore its
economy and strategic position, may become more prone to accept Pakistan’s
demand to settle Kashmir Dispute more on Pakistan's terms.
We may conclude that
Pakistan should make every effort to make the best utilization of its
geographical location. Any agreements extending India economic, turned
strategic, advantages at the regional level, without achieving any parallel
strategic advantage, would be entirely against the strategic interests of
Pakistan, and as such should be avoided. Pakistan’s strategic interests should
be given primacy over the short sighted economic interests because these are the
strategic interests which better serve the national interests than the short sighted economic interests.
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