Sunday, 12 October 2014

The Greatest Casualty of 9/11 (2)

In part (1) of this article we have seen that there was every likelihood for Pakistan after conducting nuclear tests in 1998 to assume a leadership role among the Muslim nations. But, in the aftermath of 9/11 event, Musharraf regime’s short sightedness dragged Pakistan into so called war of terror and provided India with secured and peaceful borders. Consequently, on the one hand, Pakistan was held back from assuming the leadership role among the Muslim nations, and, on the other hand, India, by developing its economy, was allowed to grow into a hurdle in Pakistan’s way of assuming leadership role among the Muslim nations. 

Now that USA is leaving Afghanistan and Taliban suicidal attacks have subsided in Pakistan to a great extent, Pakistan may have space, on the one hand, to revise its policy viz a viz India and reinforce, on the other hand, its efforts to enhance its political and military ties with the Muslim nations. Luckily, in the backdrop of new regional and world scenario linked with China emerging as new world power, Pakistan’s geo-strategic importance offers it new prospects to assume role of regional leadership. Pakistan, due to its geo-strategic position, may become a linchpin of new Economic and Political Alliance consisting of Afghanistan, CIS, China and Gulf States; Gawadar Port may act as economic vanguard in fabricating such an alliance. Such a pivotal position attained by Pakistan in such a strategically important alliance would add to Pakistan’s strategic importance viz a viz India in the eyes of Muslim nations and pave the way to Pakistan’s leadership role among the Muslim nations (for details plz see my articles “Muslim Millat” and Pakistan's Role in Ensuing Decade" and "Pak-Iran Gas and Gawadar Port Projects".

As for as India concerned, Pakistan may take all necessary steps to convince India to solve Kashmir dispute peacefully. But, if India does not come to terms, Pakistan may employ the strategy of making India a bad destination for foreign investment. For the purpose, whole India may be converted into a country marred with internal battlegrounds like India had developed internal battlegrounds in Pakistan. Kashmiri freedom movement may be supported not only morally but also militarily. Pakistan is a legal party to this Kashmir dispute; Pakistan has every legal right not to allow the other party i.e. India to change situation in Kashmir in India’s favor.

The logic of engaging India militarily in Kashmir is usually rejected with a counter logic that first Pakistan should strengthen its economy and then take effective steps to force India out of Kashmir. Such a counter logic is not tenable when assessed in the light of fact that both states are nuclear powers; Pakistan, using its economic clout,   can never force India out of Kashmir; nuclear power of a state can never be undone by using economic power. It is true USSR was disintegrated under economic pressures but those pressures were built through military might by western powers. Any world economic power lacking in military might could never build such economic pressures; Japan could never break up USSR, despite all the economic might it had.  

Pakistan by engaging India militarily- by developing internal battlegrounds in India- may put unbearable economic pressures on India and consequently bring India to terms. 

A state may build up its power through combining its military, economic and political influences. History tells us that military and political power always leads to economic power as well. After the Second World War, USA’s military and political power was the supreme but its economic power (though world's largest) was much lesser than its military and political power. The USA's per capita income in 1945 was above $10,000 which grew to $40,000 in 2008 (inflation adjusted). Using its military and political power, USA gradually developed into present economic might. Similarly economic power may also be translated into military and political power.  But conversion of political and military power into economic power is much shorter process than the process of conversion of economic power into political and military power. Pakistan has been blessed with opportunity to convert its political and military power into economic power through forging regional Economic and Political Alliance.  What Pakistan requires is to focus on formation of regional Economic and Political Alliances and to put military pressure on India simultaneously.

We may conclude that it is high time for Pakistan to revise its Indian and regional policy as well as to step up efforts to forge close military and political ties with Muslim nations. It is the only way to undo the impact of wrong policies pursued in the past.  

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