Yemen crises has
developed into a military conflict which has further aggravated already existed
division between Sunni and Shiite Muslim nations. But, ironically, this crises
is unfolding, for both Iran led and Saudi led forces, such disillusionments
which may pave the way to Muslims’ unity at least at regional level.
We have already seen
in my article “ Muslim Millat and
Pakistan’s Role in Ensuing Decade” that Muslims’ economic, political and
defense institutions are based on concept of nation state and as such have
failed, time and again, to protect economic, political and defense interests of
Muslims. The world powers which have based current world order on concept of
nation state try their best to make it sure that Muslim nation states should
not do away with negative implications of nation state based economic,
political and defense institutions. The world powers keep on exploiting the
weakness of Muslim nation states sometimes through protecting their vital
economic, political and defense interests and sometimes through damaging these
vital interests of Muslim nation states. The overall impact of such
exploitation of Muslim nation states is to ensure that Muslim nation states
could not be united so that Muslims could not be taken out of hegemony of world
powers, especially USA. Yemen crises is the latest example proving the
impotency of nation state institutions
adopted by the Muslims, and once again it is proved that panacea of economic,
political and defense interests of Muslim nations lies in the unity of
economic, political and defense institutions of Muslim states.
It is due to nation
state concept that both Saudi regime and Iran see each other as a threat to
each other’s security; it is this hostile perception about each other which
defines each state’s role played in Yemen crises. But in the wake of Yemen crises, some
important developments have occurred which may lead Muslim nations towards
destination of unity.
Saudi regime has been
heavily reliant over USA’s military and political power to safeguard the
regime’s interests. Saudi regime’s strong reaction to Yemeni internal situation
can only be better understood in the perspective of two very important factors:
firstly the likely nuclear deal between Iran and USA, and secondly the USA’s
refusal to help Saudi regime in this crises. Left to face the hard fact that
USA’s umbrella is no more available to protect Saudi regime’s regional
interests, and threatened by the likelihood of Iran-USA deal on nuclear issue-
which would further aggravate Saudi regime’s security concerns- Saudi regime
has learnt a bitter lesson that USA’s umbrella is no longer sufficient to
protect Saudi regime’s interests, and that unity in defense field among at
least some Muslim nations is essential to safeguard defense interests of Saudi
regime and those Muslim nations. This
change in the strategic vision of Saudi regime may pave the way to unity among
Muslim nations at least at regional level.
Similarly Iran has
faced some very hard facts in the wake of Yemen crises. After 1979 revolution, Iran is consistent in
its policy of strengthening Iran friendly regimes among Muslim states. But,
unfortunately, to achieve its objectives, Iran does not flinch in adopting such
policies which are seen, among other Muslim nations, as sectarianism. As all Muslim states- with a
few exceptions- have majority Sunni populations, during Yemen crises, the
unequivocal support extended by important Sunni states to Saudi regime may have
disillusioned Iran of the supposition that
any sectarian policy adopted by Iran could strengthen Iran’s security.
Disillusioned with chances of success of sectarian policy, Iran would be
compelled to adopt other ways to secure its interests and security. One
strategy –i.e. nuclear deal with USA and EU- already adopted by Iran to secure
and promote its interests may not be of much success.
The latest news
suggest that under the proposed nuclear deal with USA and EU, Iran would have
to cripple its nuclear capability to such an extent that it would require
decades to regain and reinstall such capability. Being impotent in nuclear
field, Iran would have to seek some other options to offset its damaged
security perception.
It was under severe
economic pressures that Iran was compelled to come into terms with USA and EU
over nuclear issue. Iran’s GDP, under economic sanctions imposed by USA and EU
plunged from $528 b in 2011 to $368 b in 2013. Oil production accounts for only
23% of Iran’s GDP; services sector
contributes 50% of the GDP.
In order to promote
and strengthen its economic and defense interests, Iran may have two options in
this scenario. The first option is to become a member of likely emerging
regional economic block consisting China, Pakistan, Central Asia and the Gulf
region. The importance and buoyancy of this likely economic alliance depends
much upon the proposed Economic Corridor linking China with the Gulf region
through the port of Gawadar. Actually it would be China’s and Central Asia's imports and exports
to and from the Gulf region and beyond
which would give importance to Gawadar project.
As a competitor to Gwadar project, ‘Chahbahar’ project is being developed by Iran with collaboration of India
to link trade route between India and the Central Asia. But Iran needs to
appreciate that ‘chahbahar’ cannot be a real competitor of Gawadar for
capturing the Central Asian trade; as Iran cannot compete Chinese investment in
the Central Asia, Chahbahar cannot compete Gawadar, if China chooses Gawadar as
a trade route between the Central Asia and the Gulf region and beyond. If Iran
opts for joining Pak-China led regional economic block, Iran would be having
access to the world’s huge market which would be far greater than the market likely
to be accessed by Iran through Chahbahar. In order to join Pak-China led economic block
including the Central Asia, the Gulf region and Afghanistan as well, Iran would
have to compromise its ambitious ‘Chahbahar’ project.
The
second option opened to Iran is to become a ploy in
the hands of USA to safeguard USA’s regional interests even at the cost of
interests of regional Muslim states.
The likely Pak-China led economic block would be destined to replace USA’s
regional influence; the USA would like to forestall such a situation and may
use India and Iran for the purpose. Iran
may be used to destabilize the Gulf region; similarly India and Iran may be
used to destabilize Baluchistan and Afghanistan. The purpose behind all such
moves would be to create hurdles in the way of establishment of likely Pak-China
led economic block. For the time being, the USA’s Afghan policy apparently
seems to be in line with that of Pakistan. But such a seemingly positive posture
of USA’s Afghan policy is aiming at encouraging Pakistan to consume its
military resources to fight against Pakistani Taliban who are aligned with
Afghan Taliban. Once the purpose is fulfilled, the USA would try to use Iran,
India and Kabul regime to make Afghanistan a hurdle in the way of likely Pak-China
led economic block. But Iran is not likely to gain much, if they opt to become
a watchdog of USA’s interests in the region.
As mentioned earlier,
Iran’s 50% GDP is contributed by services (15% by professional services), 23%
by oil production, 13% by manufacturing. If Iran opts to be aligned with USA,
its oil exports to EU would be increased, but its oil exports accounts for only
23% of the GDP. If Iran opts to be aligned with Pak-China led economic block, its
exports to this block may be increased manifolds especially in areas like oil, professional
services (which account for 15% of its GDP) and its manufactured goods (which
account for 13% of its GDP). The USA and EU may not be conducive markets for
services oriented Iranian exports. The best strategy for Iran may be to forge a
deal with USA and EU on nuclear issue so that economic sanctions may be done
away with and develop economic ties with China and the regional Muslim states
through joining the likely Pak-China led economic block.
Furthermore, if Iran
aligns itself with USA against Pak-China led economic block, Iran’s security
would be threatened much more because Iran is located in the middle of likely
Pak-China led economic block. It would be in the better security interests of
Iran to align with Pak-China block than to align with USA and India.
We may conclude that
Yemen crises is likely to unfold opportunities for the Muslim states to be
united in economic and defense fields. The USA’s regional influence was the
greatest hurdle in the way to unity among the Muslim states. The Yemen crises
is indicating that USA’s regional influence is diminishing and likely emergence
of Pak-China led economic block is posing a good omen to replace USA’s regional influence. In other words, the way
to unity among the Muslim nations is being paved.
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