Military operation in N.
Waziristan would be fatal to our military's power and influence in the country.
Army may not achieve its short term objectives in N. Waziristan without
generating long term public animosity against Army in Pakistan generally and in
N. Waziristan particularly. Later on, Army would have nothing to offer to
tribal Pakistanis to offset this animosity which would be a continuous cause to
erode Army's power and influence in Pakistan.
Government’s view is that North Waziristan is
providing shelter to Taliban and Al-qaeda’s remnants which need to be flushed
out of this area so that anti-state activities by these militants in Pakistan
may be controlled. This stated objective
of military operation in N. Waziristan is not only shrouded with grave
confusion but also smacks of fighting against reflection without removing the
real cause of the problem.
The first thing to ascertain is whether Pak army would
be able to evict militants from N. Waziristan forever. What strategy would be
adopted, if militants, during or before military operation, shift to
Afghanistan or other parts of Pakistan to come back again in N. Waziristan after
the operation is over? Is Pakistan ready to deploy military permanently in N.
Waziristan and bear financial burden permanently in this respect? Pakistan is
already not considered very conducive place to invest in, what if militants
shift to settled areas during military operation? Is Pakistan ready to face
fallout of this military operation in economic and social terms? Is this
military operation and its implications fit in the Pakistan’s post USA withdrawal
regional strategy? Has Pakistan decided to align with anti-taliban forces in
Afghanistan? Could such an alliance with anti-taliban forces serve Pakistan’s
foreign policy interests in a better or worse manner in post USA’s withdrawal
period? Has Pakistan worked out strategy (if it is possible) to contain
negative implications of this military operation to the time of USA’s
withdrawal from the region?
All these are the questions which need to be answered
along with workable strategy before going to military operation in N.
Waziristan.
Most important of all, it needs to be clarified by
Pakistan whether military operation in N. Waziristan is the only solution to
the problem or other options are also available to achieve the stated objective
of this military operation. This question, in fact, relates to the real causes
of growth of militarism/extremism in Pakistan. This surge of militarism in
Pakistan has its roots in peoples’ dissatisfaction with the government’s
policies and state systems/institutions which do not deliver to the
satisfaction of peoples’ aspirations. These aspirations are not only religious
but also social and economic ones. Our existing state systems/institutions do
not have capability to come up to peoples’ expectations, even if such
institutions are reformed in the best manner keeping within the parameters of existing
state systems/institutions. What is required is not to reform existing state
institutions but to erect these institutions on entirely different foundations.
We have seen failure of Judiciary in recent years to provide justice to the
people, though this judicial system has been reformed in the best possible
manner. Similarly our political, economic and administrative institutions
cannot perform according to peoples’ aspirations, even if they are reformed in
the best manner. These institutions may perform well in non-islamic societies
where peoples’ aspirations may not be conflicting to such institutions’
performance. But in Islamic societies like Pakistan, state institutions have to
be in line with Islamic aspirations of the people. Turkey did its best to
achieve socio-economic and political development through secular values and
institutions but in vain. Now they are starting to value Islamic aspirations of
people, and as a result their social, political, economic and educational
institutions are performing better than before though still Turkey has a long
way to go to establish Islamic institutions.
In short, we need in Pakistan to establish Islamic political,
economic, social and legal systems, if we want to suppress militarism/extremism
in Pakistan. Only Islamic institutions can perform to the satisfaction of
peoples’ aspirations; when peoples’ aspirations would be satisfied, there would
be no encouragement to go for militarism.
But, of course, establishment of Islamic institutions is
a long term solution to the problem. The short term solution lies in negotiations
with the militants. One of the causes of suicidal attacks in Pakistan are drone
attacks which are launched against militants with complicity of Pakistan’s
authorities. Pakistan’s authorities should stand with militants to stop these
drone attacks; such a good-will gesture on the part of Pakistan’s authorities
may pave way to successful negotiations with militants to end suicidal attacks
in Pakistan. If suicidal attacks are discontinued, Pakistan should not bother
about USA’s demand to launch military operation in N. Waziristan. In order to
abridge trust deficit between militants and Pakistan’s government, Pakistan may
announce discontinuation of NATO supply through Pakistan till end of drone
attacks against militants.
If Pakistan’s Army undertakes military operations in
N. Waziristan to the blatant disregard of above discussed factors, it will
surely be fatal to Pak Army’s influence and power in Pakistan.
